Data for 26th February 2021

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Hello Friends! 🕵️‍♂️📰📉

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Data 26th February 2021:

581 new +ve tests (⇩27% since yesterday)

20410 new tests reporting (⇩17%)

(- of these 14150 were NHS (69% of the tests returned) and 6260 were community (31%). This is the same share as yesterday)

This is 2.8% positive percentage rate (⇩0.3%) – this is SO LOW!

 

In total including repeat tests 924 were +ve – this is a 4.5% rate (⇧0.6%)

 

3764 newly tested individuals reported (⇩18%).

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 38, Borders 2, Dumfries and Galloway 6, Fife 41, Forth Valley 77, Grampian 19, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 161, Highland 6, Lanarkshire 97, Lothian 105, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 29, Western Isles 0

 

27 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩4)

80 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩9)

924 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩4.4%) – this is another really quite big drop! And we are now well below the delayed discharges number.

As at 24th February, there were 944 people delayed in hospital (⇩13.5% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 1,542,929 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 65,340 their second.

This means that since yesterday 26,949 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 8,679 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 225 people had the coronavirus in the week 13th to 19th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 180 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously! It really shouldn’t be a surprise. This is a winter virus – there is no sense in pretending otherwise. As we go in to spring, numbers will go down and down and down.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – Bouncing around between that green line and that yellow line. I have thought this is the floor, but in fact, if testing strategy improves and with spring coming, maybe we will continue slowly to drop.

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – I expected positivity to remain around the 5% level, but I am very pleasantly surprised that it is now falling below that and in fact this is now a sustained trend. I was too pessimistic! The positivity rate now surely is a function of the testing protocols, hospital acquired infections and endemic illness (the levels of which will of course drop as we enter in to spring).

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals trending up again.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall just incredibly fast, and is back below the number of delayed discharges. We’re well through the level we were at in the peak in October, and dropping fast! ITU occupancy is tending to fall really quickly again, which is a great relief. Deaths reported are trending down and this is as we would have expected after such a prolonged drop in positive tests and also with the vaccine having been rolled out to the vulnerable groups.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – NHS tests vs Community tests. The lighthouse labs certainly aren’t getting much work these days.

Graph 5

 

Graphs 6&7 – Positive tests to death and ITU occupancy. Deaths are appearing to fall now in parallel with positive tests, perhaps with a smaller lag than we saw before. And this recent surge in ITU occupancy relative to positive tests seems to be settling back down – this is another relief.

Graphs 6&7

 

Graph 8 – ITU occupancy falling more slowly now, nationwide, but still really encouraging.

Graph 8

 

Graph 9 – ITU occupancy by region 1 – I have added this graph here with all the traces on it… it’s a mess!

Graph 9

 

Graph 10 – ITU occupancy by region 2 – this graph has had all the traces removed where the occupancy has gone below 5 patients now. Isn’t it amazing how much less crowded it is?

Graph 10

 

Graph 11 – Hospital occupancy by region – still extraordinarily fast rates of decline for all of these now. Have I said before that I find this astonishing?! And it’s just such brilliant news.

Graph 11

 

Graphs 13&13 – Vaccinations as seen below. First doses have slowed down by quite a long way. Second doses are taking off slowly.

Graphs 12&13

 

Graph 14 – Prevalence has dropped to less than one half of what it was in Week 3 – this is more incredibly good news. See the featured image at the top of this blog for a visualisation of the share of the population infected. It’s really not a common thing to be infected with covid it seems.

Graph 14

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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