For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Data 25th February 2021:
769 new +ve tests (⇩3.7% since yesterday)
24589 new tests reporting (⇧4.5%)
(- of these 16886 were NHS (69% of the tests returned) and 7703 were community (31%).)
This is 3.1% positive percentage rate (⇩0.3%)
In total including repeat tests 901 were +ve – this is a 3.9% rate (⇩0.9%)
4589 newly tested individuals reported (⇩15%).
Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:
Ayrshire and Arran 58, Borders 6, Dumfries and Galloway 5, Fife 40, Forth Valley 75, Grampian 18, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 227, Highland 14, Lanarkshire 146, Lothian 141, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 39, Western Isles 0
31 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩16)
89 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩4)
967 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩5.0%) – this is another really quite big drop! And we are now well below the delayed discharges number.
As at 24th February, there were 944 people delayed in hospital (⇩13.5% from previous week).
As of today, 1,515,980 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 56,661 their second.
This means that since yesterday 27,903 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 6,540 with their second.
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 180 people had the coronavirus in the week 6th to 12th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 150 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously!
Graph 1 – Bouncing around between that green line and the yellow . I have thought this is the floor, but in fact, if testing strategy improves and with spring coming, maybe we will continue slowly to drop.
Graph 2 – I expected positivity to remain around the 5% level, but I am pleasantly surprised that it is now falling below that and in fact this is now a sustained trend. I was too pessimistic! The positivity rate now surely is a function of the testing protocols, hospital acquired infections and endemic illness (the levels of which will of course drop as we enter in to spring).
Graph 3 – The reduced levels in newly tested individuals were a good sign for the levels of symptoms in the community (and for future positive test counts) but they are rising again now. Still really good news when set against the falling positivity rate – this implies that we really have significantly falling prevalence in the community.
Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall just incredibly fast, and is just above this new lower number of delayed discharges updated today. This seems highly significant.. We’re well through the level we were at in the peak in October, and dropping like a stone! ITU occupancy is tending to fall again, which is a great relief. Deaths reported are trending down and this is as we have expected after such a prolonged drop in positive tests and also with the vaccine having been rolled out to the vulnerable groups.
Graph 5 – NHS tests record high number vs Community tests historically low number. Have we just given up on those old government lighthouse labs?
Graphs 6&7 – Finally I think we can say that deaths are dropping in a way that is making a lot more sense! The drop is a lot faster than it felt like it might be at the start of the week. There still has been a marked increase compared to what we would have expected from the positive tests… but it is really good news that they are coming back down. ITU occupancy is deviating in the wrong direction from what positive tests might reasonably have predicted too, but it’s tremendously good news it’s falling again now too – long may that continue.
Graph 8 – This increased mortality in covid positive patients since Christmas time does now seem to be dropping away again applying both a five- and a seven-day lag – really a huge relief.
Graph 9 – ITU occupancy by region – I think these are flattening. This seems to be in sync with positive tests flattening – so maybe the lag from positive test to ITU entry is very much shorter than it used to be (16 days). This might imply a significant change in testing strategy.
Graph 10 – Hospital occupancy by region – still extraordinarily fast rates of decline for all of these now – see yesterday’s post in Articles on the front page.
Graphs 11&12 – Vaccinations as seen below. First doses have slowed down by quite a long way. Second doses are taking off slowly.
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