Data for 24th February 2021

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Hello Friends!

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Data 24th February 2021:

798 new +ve tests (⇧22% since yesterday)

23519 new tests reporting (⇧47%)

(- of these 14854 were NHS (63% of the tests returned) and 8665 were community (37%).)

This is 3.4% positive percentage rate (⇩0.7%)

 

In total including repeat tests 929 were +ve – this is a 3.9% rate (⇩0.9%)

 

5370 newly tested individuals reported (⇧47%).

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 49, Borders 2, Dumfries and Galloway 12, Fife 41, Forth Valley 100, Grampian 47, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 224, Highland 19, Lanarkshire 120, Lothian 133, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 49, Western Isles 2

 

47 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩9)

93 people in ITU with recently +ve test (no change)

1018 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩5.4%) – this is another really quite big drop! And we are now well below the delayed discharges number.

As at 17th February, there were 1091 people delayed in hospital (⇧4.3% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 1,488,077 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 50,121 their second.

This means that since yesterday 22836 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 6,918 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 180 people had the coronavirus in the week 6th to 12th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 150 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously!

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – Bouncing around that green line. This is the covid floor, I do believe. Maybe it’s going to be nearer the yellow line?

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Positivity looks to have landed on a floor – or it is perhaps dropping slowly. The positivity rate now surely is a function of the testing protocols, hospital acquired infections and endemic illness.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – The reduced levels were a good sign for the levels of symptoms in the community (and for future positive test counts) but they are rising a little now. Hopefully they will settle back down.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall just incredibly fast, and is now less than the number of delayed discharges. This seems highly significant.. We’re well through the level we were at in the peak in October, and dropping like a stone! ITU occupancy is tending to fall again, which is a great relief. Deaths reported are higher than I was expecting – I just cannot understand how deaths can remain this high when positive tests have been coming down for so long and so significantly, but they are falling slowly. They should drop to much lower numbers this week, you would think from the case numbers.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – I’ve included this graph today because it’s updated from NRS this week. Deaths in hospital with covid are drifting a little from hospital occupancy.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6 – Lowest positive percentage on a Wednesday since Week 38 last year.

Graph 6

 

Graph 7 – NHS vs Community tests.

Graph 7

 

Graph 8 – ITU occupancy nationwide – still falling fast.

Graph 8

 

Graph 9 – ITU occupancy by region – I think these are flattening. This seems to be in sync with positive tests flattening – so maybe the lag is very much shorter than it used to be (16 days). This might imply a significant change in testing strategy.

Graph 9

 

Graph 10 – Hospital occupancy by region – still extraordinarily fast rates of decline for most of them!! I can’t get over them. I think one day soon I will post all these graphs separately by region… The double hump in Wave 2 is just really strange.

Graph 10

 

Graphs 11&12 – Vaccinations as seen below. First doses have slowed down by quite a long way. Second doses did take off but also seem to have slowed down. I don’t really understand why this is happening, but there it is.

Graphs 11&12

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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