Data for 23rd February 2021

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Hello Friends! 🕵️‍♂️📰📉

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Data 23rd February 2021:

655 new +ve tests (⇩8.4% since yesterday)

16031 new tests reporting (⇧30%)

(- of these 11153 were NHS (70% of the tests returned) and 4878 were community (30%).)

This is 4.1% positive percentage rate (⇩1.7%)

 

In total including repeat tests 777 were +ve – this is a 4.8% rate (⇩1.6%)

 

3653 newly tested individuals reported (⇩11%).

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 39, Borders 1, Dumfries and Galloway 12, Fife 24, Forth Valley 71, Grampian 12, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 198, Highland 14, Lanarkshire 128, Lothian 123, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 29, Western Isles 4

 

56 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧56)

93 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩6)

1076 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩5.7%).

As at 17th February, there were 1091 people delayed in hospital (⇧4.3% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 1,465,241 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 43,203 their second.

This means that since yesterday 19,753 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 5,861 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 180 people had the coronavirus in the week 6th to 12th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 150 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously!

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – Bouncing around that green line. This is the covid floor, I do believe. Maybe it’s going to be between the green and yellow lines?

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Positivity looks to have landed on a floor – or it is perhaps dropping slowly. The positivity rate now surely is a function of the testing protocols, hospital acquired infections and endemic illness.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – The reduced levels were a good sign for the levels of symptoms in the community (and for future positive test counts) but they are rising a little now. Hopefully they will settle back down.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall fast, and is now smaller than the number of delayed discharges. This seems highly significant.. We’re well through the level we were at in the peak in October, and the trend in the drop is very fast. ITU occupancy has fallen again, which is a great relief. Deaths reported are higher than I was expecting – I just cannot understand how deaths can remain this high when positive tests have been coming down for so long and so significantly. They should drop to much lower numbers this week, you would think, from the case numbers. I really am going to be looking for some answers about this by the end of this week.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – NHS vs Community tests.. Make what you will of this. I think it’s worth adding it. Community tests are appearing to trend to nothing – did I miss an announcement on this change in strategy?

Graph 5

 

Graphs 6&7 – Deaths today are higher than I was expecting. They just are not dropping anywhere near the rate of positive tests and this really doesn’t make a lot of sense at all. ITU occupancy is also looking a little higher than we would expect.

Graphs 6&7

 

Graph 8 – ITU occupancy by region – are they flattening?

Graph 8

 

Graph 9 – Hospital occupancy by region – still extraordinarily fast rates of decline for most of them!! I can’t get over these.

Graph 9

 

Graphs 10&11 – Vaccinations as seen below. First doses have slowed down by quite a long way. Second doses did take off but also seem to have slowed down. I don’t really understand why this is happening, but there it is.

Graphs 10&11

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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