Data for 22nd February 2021

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Hello Friends!

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/ and https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats

 

Data 22nd February 2021:

715 new +ve tests (⇩14% since yesterday)

12359 new tests reporting (⇩31%)

(- of these 4725 were NHS (38% of the tests returned) and 7634 were community (62%).)

This is 5.8% positive percentage rate (⇧1.2%)

 

In total including repeat tests 818 were +ve – this is a 6.6% rate (⇧1.1%)

 

4123 newly tested individuals reported (⇩16%).

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 56, Borders 6, Dumfries and Galloway 8, Fife 26, Forth Valley 62, Grampian 34, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 246, Highland 17, Lanarkshire 99, Lothian 140, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 20, Western Isles 1

 

0 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩5)

99 people in ITU with recently +ve test (no change)

1141 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇧0.8%).

As at 17th February, there were 1091 people delayed in hospital (⇧4.3% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 1,445,488 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 37,342 their second.

This means that since yesterday 13,546 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 1,863 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 180 people had the coronavirus in the week 6th to 12th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 150 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously!

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – Bouncing around that green line. This is the covid floor, I do believe.

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Positivity looks to have landed on a floor, which I believe is a function of the testing protocols, hospital acquired infections and endemic illness.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals have been reducing for a long time and now look like they are stabilising or rising. The reduced levels were a good sign for the levels of symptoms in the community.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall fast, although today the number has risen again. We’re still through the level we were at in the peak in October, and the trend in the drop is very fast. ITU occupancy has gone up the last couple of days. Hopefully this is just a blip. Deaths reported are finally looking like they are falling after appearing quite flat – and we see very low numbers reported today as usual for a Monday. But we have had a prolonged drop in cases – and so while this is good news, we should expect deaths to drop to really low numbers this week.

I have marked delayed discharges on this chart – these are those patients remaining in hospital beyond the time there is any clinical need for them to be there. There are many reasons a patient gets delayed, but we believe there is a good number in this group delayed due to a positive covid test, and therefore there is some crossover between the delayed discharge patients and the covid patients. Note how close together the blue line and the turquoise dotted line are getting.

Graph 4

Graph 5 – NHS vs Community tests.. Make what you will of this. I think it’s worth adding it but it’s just getting so messy! I’m not sure what’s going on, to be honest.

Graph 5

 

Graphs 6&7 – These continue to be a puzzle but deaths are dropping – just a little less quickly than we might have expected. The point is that there has been a rise in deaths unaccounted for by positive tests, either before Christmas or after, depending on lag applied. These in this chart are deaths by date of registration and not by date of occurrence, but the chart for deaths by date of occurrence shows a similar effect. I don’t know how or why this has come about, but it is an undeniable effect.

Graphs 6&7

 

Graph 8 – This shows that there has been a recent rise in ITU occupancy, which again could not have been predicted by positive tests. I’ll try and have a look at these properly this week.

Graph 8

 

Graph 9 – ITU occupancy falling but more slowly than before.

Graph 9

 

Graph 10 – ITU occupancy by region – all good news really.

Graph 10

 

Graph 11 – Hospital occupancy by region – still extraordinarily fast rates of decline!!

Graph 11

 

Graphs 12&13 – Vaccinations as seen below. First doses have slowed down by quite a long way. Second doses did take off but also seem to have slowed down. I don’t really understand why this is happening, but there it is.

Graphs 12&13

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

 

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