Hello Friends! 🕵️♂️📰📉
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Data 21st February 2021:
827 new +ve tests (⇧3.0% since yesterday)
17955 new tests reporting (⇩9.7%)
(- of these 8752 were NHS (48% of the tests returned) and 9203 were community (52%).)
This is 4.6% positive percentage rate (⇧0.6%)
In total including repeat tests 992 were +ve – this is a 5.5% rate (⇧0.9%)
4893 newly tested individuals reported (⇧2.2%).
Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:
Ayrshire and Arran 67, Borders 5, Dumfries and Galloway 3, Fife 38, Forth Valley 64, Grampian 36, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 202, Highland 25, Lanarkshire 168, Lothian 178, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 40, Western Isles 1
5 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩24)
99 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩3)
1132 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩1.9%).
As at 17th February, there were 1091 people delayed in hospital (⇧4.3% from previous week).
As of today, 1,431,942 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 35,479 their second.
This means that since yesterday 19,299 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 2,006 with their second.
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 180 people had the coronavirus in the week 6th to 12th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 150 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously!
Graph 1 – Bouncing around that green line. This is the covid floor, I do believe, for now anyway.
Graph 2 – Positivity looks to have landed on a floor, which I believe is a function of the testing protocols, hospital acquired infections and endemic illness.
Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals have been reducing for a long time and now look like they are stabilising. The reduced levels are a good sign though for the levels of symptoms in the community.
Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall fast – that’s us through the level we were at in the peak in October, and the trend in the drop is very fast. ITU occupancy has gone up the last couple of days. Hopefully this is just a blip. Deaths reported are finally looking like they are falling after appearing quite flat – and we will see very low numbers reported Sunday and Monday as usual. But we have had a prolonged drop in cases – and so while this is good news, we should expect deaths to drop to really low numbers. I have marked delayed discharges on this chart – these are those patients remaining in hospital beyond the time there is any clinical need for them to be there. There are many reasons a patient gets delayed, but we believe there is a good number in this group delayed due to a positive covid test, and therefore there is some crossover between the delayed discharge patients and the covid patients. Note how close together the blue line and the turquoise dotted line are getting.
Graph 5 – Another full week of percentage positives to report. The spread hasn’t been as big this week as in other weeks, but you can see that the trend by days has been typical. This is another indication to me that we are on a floor here, because the variance has reduced, while as we can see from Graph 2 we have been hovering around 5% for quite a wee while now.
Graphs 6&7 – These continue to be a puzzle but deaths are dropping finally. The point is that there has been a rise in deaths unaccounted for by positive tests, either before Christmas or after, depending on lag applied. These in this chart are deaths by date of registration and not by date of occurrence, but the chart for deaths by date of occurrence shows a similar effect. I don’t know how or why this has come about, but it is an undeniable effect.
Graph 8 – This shows that there has been a recent rise in ITU occupancy, which again could not have been predicted by positive tests. I’ll try and have a look at these properly this week.
Graph 9 – ITU occupancy falling but more slowly than before.
Graph 10 – ITU occupancy by region – all good news really.
Graph 11 – Hospital occupancy by region – still extraordinarily fast rates of decline!!
Graphs 12&13 – Vaccinations as seen below. First doses have slowed down but second doses are taking off.
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪