Data for 20th February 2021

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Hello Friends! 🕵️‍♂️📉📰

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/ 

 

Data 20th February 2021:

803 new +ve tests (⇩9% since yesterday)

19882 new tests reporting (⇩14%)

(- of these 9265 were NHS (47% of the tests returned) and 10617 were community (53%).)

This is 4.0% positive percentage rate (⇧0.2%)

 

In total including repeat tests 915 were +ve – this is a 4.6% rate (⇧0.2%)

 

4789 newly tested individuals reported (⇧4.9%).

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 65, Borders 13, Dumfries and Galloway 18, Fife 48, Forth Valley 75, Grampian 25, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 209, Highland 22, Lanarkshire 134, Lothian 172, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 22, Western Isles 0

 

29 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩2) – this is the lowest number of deaths we have seen reported in a weekday report in a really long time.

102 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇧4)

1154 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩5.6%).

As at 17th February, there were 1091 people delayed in hospital (⇧4.3% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 1,412,643 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 33,473 their second.

This means that since yesterday 26,491 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 4,458 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 180 people had the coronavirus in the week 6th to 12th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 150 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously!

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – Bouncing around that green line. This is the covid floor, I do believe.

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Positivity looks to have landed on a floor, which I believe is a function of the testing protocols, hospital acquired infections and endemic illness.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals have been reducing for a long time and now look like they are stabilising. The reduced levels are a good sign though for the levels of symptoms in the community.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall fast – that’s us through the level we were at in the peak in October, and the trend in the drop is very fast. ITU occupancy has gone up the last couple of days. Hopefully this is just a blip. Deaths reported are finally looking like they are falling after appearing quite flat – and we will see very low numbers reported Sunday and Monday as usual. But we have had a prolonged drop in cases – and so while this is good news, we should expect deaths to drop to really low numbers. I have marked delayed discharges on this chart – these are those patients remaining in hospital beyond the time there is any clinical need for them to be there. There are many reasons a patient gets delayed, but we believe there is a good number in this group delayed due to a positive covid test, and therefore there is some crossover between the delayed discharge patients and the covid patients. You’ll see that soon hospital occupancy is going to crash through that delayed discharges number.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – Community versus NHS testing.

Graph 5

 

Graphs 6,7,8&9 – There is something going on in a couple of regions – where the number of positive tests is rising – I’m sending these on as promised. Clearly, something is going on in Lothian and Forth Valley, where they have lost their closely matched traces with similar regions.

Graphs 6,7,8&9 

 

Graphs 10&11 – These continue to be a puzzle but deaths are dropping finally.

Graphs 10&11

 

Graph 12 – ITU Occupancy has taken a wee surge, although these can’t be linked to any corresponding rise in positive tests.

Graph 12

 

Graph 13 – ITU occupancy falling fast nationwide, but maybe slowing a little.

Graph 13

 

Graph 14 – ITU occupancy by region – as the numbers get really low, the signal gets a bit noisy, but we have had modest rises in some areas

Graph 14

 

Graph 15 – Hospital occupancy by region – still extraordinarily fast rates of decline!! Even in Lothian and Forth Valley there have been drops today.

Graph 15

 

Graphs 16&17 – Vaccinations as seen below. First doses have slowed down but second doses are taking off.

Graphs 16&17

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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