Hello Friends! 🕵️♂️📉📰
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/.
Data 19th February 2021:
885 new +ve tests (⇧29% since yesterday)
23231 new tests reporting (⇧9%)
(- of these 15320 were NHS (66% of the tests returned) and 7911 were community (34%).)
This is 3.8% positive percentage rate (⇧0.6%)
In total including repeat tests 1017 were +ve – this is a 4.4% rate (⇧0.6%)
4567 newly tested individuals reported (⇧28%).
Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:
Ayrshire and Arran 82, Borders 7, Dumfries and Galloway 16, Fife 25, Forth Valley 81, Grampian 28, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 267, Highland 17, Lanarkshire 166, Lothian 163, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 31, Western Isles 2
31 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩26) – this is the lowest number of deaths we have seen reported in the middle of the week in a really long time.
98 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇧3)
1222 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩3.1%). As at 17th February, there were 1091 people delayed in hospital (⇧4.3% from previous week).
As of today, 1,386,152 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 29,015 their second.
This means that since yesterday 31,186 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 4,846 with their second.
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 180 people had the coronavirus in the week 6th to 12th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 150 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously!
Graph 1 – Bouncing around that green line. This is the covid floor, I do believe.
Graph 2 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall fast – that’s us through the level we were at in the peak in October, and the trend in the drop is very fast.. ITU occupancy has gone up a little and isn’t falling as fast as we might like. Hopefully this is just a blip. Deaths reported are finally looking like they are falling after such a prolonged drop in cases – this is good news. I have marked delayed discharges – these are those patients remaining in hospital beyond the time there is any clinical need for them to be there. There are many reasons a patient gets delayed, but we believe there is a good number in this group delayed due to a positive covid test, and therefore there is some crossover between the delayed discharge patients and the covid patients.
Graph 3 – Historically low community testing day and historically high NHS tests again.
Graph 4 – There is something going on in a couple of regions – where the number of positive tests is rising – I think I’ll send these on separately tomorrow.
Graphs 5&6 – These continue to be a puzzle but deaths are dropping finally.
Graph 7 – ITU occupancy falling fast nationwide, but maybe slowing a little.
Graph 8 – ITU occupancy by region – as the numbers get really low, the signal gets a bit noisy, but it looks like in Lanarkshire, Lothian and Ayrshire & Arran the occupancy is flattening.
Graph 9 – Hospital occupancy by region – still extraordinarily fast!! Even in Lothian and Forth Valley there have been drops today.
Graphs 10&11 – Vaccinations as seen below. First doses have slowed down but second doses are taking off.
Graphs 12&13 – ONS prevalence study from population – prevalence really dropping fast. If you’re thinking you can barely see the infected people in the graph on the right – you are correct. I’ve made a visual of the infected people in a group of 1000 in the image bar at the head of this blog – although, in fact, it’s slightly less than this!
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪