Data for 18th February 2021

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Hello Friends! 🕵️‍♂️📉📰

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/.

 

Data 18th February 2021:

685 new +ve tests (⇩39% since yesterday) – a whopping great drop!

21280 new tests reporting (⇩13%)

(- of these 16063 were NHS (75% of the tests returned) and 5217 were community (25%).)

This is 3.2% positive percentage rate (⇩1.4%) – a great big drop in positivity

 

In total including repeat tests 816 were +ve – this is a 3.8% rate (⇩1.4%)

 

3567 newly tested individuals reported (⇩34%).

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 31, Borders 1, Dumfries and Galloway 8, Fife 62, Forth Valley 93, Grampian 26, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 158, Highland 37, Lanarkshire 100, Lothian 120, Orkney 1, Shetland 0, Tayside 44, Western Isles 4

 

57 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩7)

95 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩4)

1261 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩4.3%). As at 17th February, there were 1091 people delayed in hospital (⇧4.3% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 1,354,966 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 24,169 their second.

This means that since yesterday 34,892 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 3,760 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 150 people had the coronavirus in the week 31st January to 6th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 115 the previous week.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – Bouncing around that green line.

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Another floor! I just don’t believe under current testing practices and/or with an endemic virus and/or with hospital infections as they are, we can get below this percentage of tests coming back positive.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Is this number of newly tested individuals beginning to flatten? This drop has been interesting to observe. It does seem like a lot of testing has shifted to NHS and away from the community.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall fast. ITU occupancy falling again. Deaths reported are flat again, it seems – more later. But look at how hospital occupancy and delayed discharge numbers are close to being the same. Delayed discharges are patients remaining in hospital beyond the time there is any clinical need for them to be there. There are many reasons a patient gets delayed, but we believe there is a good number in this group delayed due to a positive covid test, and therefore there is a good deal of crossover between the delayed discharge patients and the covid patients. Hospital occupancy is now at the same level it was at at the height of the October peak – and falling fast – and ITU occupancy is lower.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – Historically low community testing day and historically high NHS tests. There has never been a higher ratio of NHS tests to community tests. There were over 3 times as many NHS tests compared to community tests.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6 – This is the lowest percentage positive day since week 42 in 2020 – but in that week there was a problem with the testing. So in fact, week 40 was the last time we saw a positive percentage this low. I’m just adding this graph for your interest because this was so noticeable. This is Thursday Week 7 today.

Graph 6

 

Graphs 7&8 – These continue to be a puzzle – but please note they are by date of registration. We have covid deaths continuing to emerge from a smaller and smaller pool of positives. Deaths by date of death look a little different, as shown in yesterday’s post.

Graphs 7&8

 

Graph 9 – ITU occupancy falling very fast nationwide.

Graph 9

 

Graph 10 – ITU occupancy by region – as the numbers get really low, the signal gets a bit noisy, but the trends are still down. Highland is about to fall off the graph.

Graph 10

 

Graph 11 – Hospital occupancy by region – isn’t this extraordinary?? These falls are just incredible. With the exception of Forth Valley and Lothian, occupancy is dropping like a stone.

Graph 11

 

Graphs 12&13 – Vaccinations as seen below. First doses have slowed down and second doses still slow but picking up.

Graphs 12&13

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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2 Comments

  • You say with Graph 2 that this is the floor ie positive rate of ~5%. England’s positive rate is currently 2.14%. What is different with our testing regime to not allow it to drop further?

    Reply
    • There could be a million reasons for it, Sharon, not least climate and temperature. It’s not just testing – but a range of of inputs. It’s a floor for now, is all I mean. I really hope it will drop lower, no doubt. Christine

      Reply

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