Data for 17th February 2021

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Hello Friends!  🕵️‍♂️📉📰

This is going up a day late – I got lost in all the data and ended up losing track of my thoughts and then home schooling! Next one coming hard on the heels of this one.

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/ and https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats

 

Data 17th February 2021:

1121 new +ve tests (⇧45% since yesterday)

24343 new tests reporting (⇧67%)

(- of these 15033 were NHS (62%) and 9310 were community (38%).)

This is 4.6% positive percentage rate (⇩0.7%)

 

In total including repeat tests 1254 were +ve – this is a 5.2% rate (⇩0.8%)

 

5353 newly tested individuals reported (⇧46%).

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 113, Borders 12, Dumfries and Galloway 11, Fife 27, Forth Valley 129, Grampian 53, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 290, Highland 26, Lanarkshire 230, Lothian 181, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 47, Western Isles 2

 

64 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧15)

99 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩1)

1317 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩4.8%). As at 10th February, there were 1046 people delayed in hospital (⇩4.6% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 1,320,074 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 20,409 their second.

This means that since yesterday 32,070 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 3272 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 150 people had the coronavirus in the week 31st January to 6th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 115 the previous week.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – Bouncing around that green line.

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Another floor! I just don’t believe under current testing practices and/or with an endemic virus and/or with hospital infections as they are, we can get below this percentage of tests coming back positive.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals number continuing to drop. Eventually, presumably, it will need to level off (until the whole population has been tested) but it’s showing no signs of this so far. I wonder who’ll be the last Scot to be left untested? Is it flattening now?

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall fast. ITU occupancy falling again. Deaths are flatter, it seems – more later.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – I added this graph because the NRS data have been updated today for the weekly hospital covid deaths.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6 – Historically low community testing day and historically high for NHS tests.

Graph 6

 

Graphs 7&8 – These continue to be a puzzle – but please note they are by date of registration. We have covid deaths continuing to emerge from a smaller and smaller pool of positives but they are coming down. Deaths by date of death look a little different.

Graphs 7&8

 

Graph 9 – Deaths by date of occurrence have been updated so I have updated this graph.

Graph 9

 

Graph 10 – ITU occupancy falling very fast nationwide.

Graph 10

 

Graph 11 – ITU occupancy by region – as the numbers get really low, the signal gets a bit noisy, but the trends are still down.

Graph 11

 

Graph 12 – Hospital occupancy by region – isn’t this extraordinary?? These falls are just incredible. With the exception of Forth Valley and Lothian, occupancy is dropping like a stone.

Graph 12

 

Graphs 13&14 – Vaccinations as seen below. First doses have slowed down and second doses still slow but picking up.

Graphs 13&14

 

Graph 15 –  Covid and respiratory deaths in care homes and hospitals updated to Week 6. Deaths in care homes from covid have dropped off a cliff after the surge we have seen since the new year. Hospital deaths coming down much more slowly. Vaccinations started on 8th December and by Christmas had really gathered pace.

Graph 15

 

Graph 16 – Covid deaths in the 85+ age group have fallen after the new year surge, but in the 65-84 age group, they remain elevated. The rise in the 45-64 age group is coming back down now.

Graph 16

 

Graph 17 – A comparison of covid deaths with other causes. For some perspective.

Graph 17

 

Graph 18 – Lots of info in here! Too much to describe – I find it all quite interesting.

Graph 18

 

Graph 19 – Covid deaths are exceeding excess deaths. This has been a consistent trend for some time and it really is puzzling. It’s a complex picture I have written about before. But it does rather prove that Covid isn’t simply adding to existing deaths causes; there is more than that going on.

Graph 19

 

To anyone who has got to the end of this blog with its 19 graphs can be very proud of themselves. I give you a gold star. ⭐

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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