Data for 15th February 2021

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Hello Friends! 🕵️‍♂️📉📰

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/ 

 

Data 15th February 2021:

559 new +ve tests (⇩38% since yesterday)

9943 new tests reporting (⇩28%)

(- of these 5576 were NHS (56%) and 4367 were community (44%).)

This is 5.6% positive percentage rate (⇩0.9%)

 

In total including repeat tests 695 were +ve – this is a 7.0% rate (⇩0.3%)

 

3072 newly tested individuals reported (⇩34%).

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 64, Borders 5, Dumfries and Galloway 7, Fife 25, Forth Valley 53, Grampian 19, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 123, Highland 29, Lanarkshire 97, Lothian 112, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 22, Western Isles 3

 

0 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩4)

102 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩2)

1428 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩1.0%). As at 10th February, there were 1046 people delayed in hospital (⇩4.6% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 1,255,190 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 14,501 their second.

This means that since yesterday 31,416 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 220 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 150 people had the coronavirus in the week 31st January to 6th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 115 the previous week.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – Bouncing around that green line.

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Another floor! I just don’t believe under current testing practices and/or with an endemic virus and/or with hospital infections as they are, we can get below this percentage of tests coming back positive.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals number continuing to drop. Eventually, presumably, it will need to level off (until the whole population has been tested) but it’s showing no signs of this so far. I wonder who’ll be the last Scot to be left untested?

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall fast. ITU occupancy falling again. Deaths are flat, it seems – more later.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – Community testing vs NHS testing has changed – the strategy has clearly been altered. It’s not clear why or how or what the effect on positivity will be. Today the NHS tests are back to being higher than community tests.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6 – Looking at the regional positives, you can see that everywhere they are flattening.

Graph 6

 

Graphs 7&8 – These continue to be a puzzle – but please note they are by date of registration. We have covid deaths continuing to emerge from a smaller and smaller pool of positives but they are coming down. Deaths by date of death look a little different. I’ve included it on other days, but there will be no change until the data is updated on Wednesday.

Graphs 7&8

 

Graph 9 – Are we losing (and did we lose before from 9th December on x-axis, ie 25th December for date of ITU occupancy) correlation between positive tests and ITU occupancy? This would imply we had from Christmas an increase in the number of people in ITU compared to what we would have expected from the positive tests count. It also may be the case this is beginning to happen again, because we can see that ITU occupancy has again departed from what was predictable before based on positive tests count.

Graph 9

 

Graph 10 – ITU occupancy falling very fast nationwide.

Graph 10

 

Graph 11 – ITU occupancy by region – Highland coming back down now. No reason for panic anywhere.

Graph 11

 

Graph 12 – Hospital occupancy by region – trending down everywhere – all of them are showing really significant drops in occupancy, except for Forth Valley, where there is clearly something going on. Really, quite a few of these hospitals are heading fast for no covid patients.

Graph 12

 

Graphs 13&14 – Vaccinations as seen below.

Graphs 13&14

 

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Lots of love ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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