Hello Friends! 📰📉🕵️♂️
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/ and https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats
Data 14th February 2021:
903 new +ve tests (⇩0.6% since yesterday)
13808 new tests reporting (⇩38%)
(- of these 4708 were NHS (34%) and 9100 were community (66%).)
This is 6.5% positive percentage rate (⇩0.2%)
In total including repeat tests 1011 were +ve – this is a 7.3% rate (⇧2.4%)
4564 newly tested individuals reported (⇧0.8%).
Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:
Ayrshire and Arran 93, Borders 3, Dumfries and Galloway 9, Fife 32, Forth Valley 87, Grampian 47, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 251, Highland 20, Lanarkshire 152, Lothian 176, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 29, Western Isles 4
4 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩41)
104 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩6)
1442 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩0.5%). As at 10th February, there were 1046 people delayed in hospital (⇩4.6% from previous week).
As of today, 1,223,774 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 14,281 their second.
This means that since yesterday 50,329 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 272 with their second.
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 150 people had the coronavirus in the week 31st January to 6th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 115 the previous week.
Graph 1 – If I were to guess, I’d say that this green line is our new Covid Floor. I’ve been predicting we’ll bounce around here indefinitely for a while now. My mind hasn’t changed. Variation day by day looks a bit less than it did during Wave 2.
Graph 2 – Another floor! I just don’t believe under current testing practices and/or with an endemic virus and/or with hospital infections as they are, we can get below this percentage of tests coming back positive.
Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals number continuing to drop. Eventually, presumably, it will need to level off (until the whole population has been tested) but it’s showing no signs of this so far. I wonder who’ll be the last Scot to be left untested?
Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall fast – at the current rate of decline it will be at the same level as the delayed discharges in just over a week. ITU occupancy falling again. Deaths are flat, it seems – more later.
Graph 5 – Percentage positives following the same pattern through the week as normal. Highest percentage positive on Monday and Tuesday, lowest on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. This remains a mystery to me – and has been for many long months! We have never had a satisfactory explanation for it.
Graph 6 – Community testing vs NHS testing has changed – the strategy has clearly been altered. It’s not clear why or how or what the effect on positivity will be. But today, we’re back to having more community tests than NHS tests all of a sudden.
Graph 7 – Looking at the regional positives, you can see that everywhere they are flattening.
Graphs 8&9 – These continue to be a puzzle – but please note they are by date of registration. We have covid deaths continuing to emerge from a smaller and smaller pool of positives but they are coming down. Deaths by date of death look a little different.
Graph 10 – Here we see deaths by date of occurrence. This tells a really different story and suggests that the change in lag between Waves 2 and 3 are actually a reporting artefact, but that is also significant. What we see here is that around 25th November on the x-axis (which means 11th December for date of death), deaths started to increase at a higher rate related to positive tests. There was a significant change to the relationship between positive tests and death at that time, which has now settled back down again – as you can see the peaks are now matching for the latest peak in positive tests. The latest death by occurrence entry we have from NRS is 31st January.
Graph 11 – Are we losing (and did we lose before from 9th December on x-axis, ie 25th December for date of ITU occupancy) correlation between positive tests and ITU occupancy? This would imply we had from Christmas an increase in the number of people in ITU compared to what we would have expected from the positive tests count. It also may be the case this is beginning to happen again, because we can see that ITU occupancy has again departed from what was predictable before based on positive tests count.
Graph 12 – ITU occupancy falling very fast nationwide.
Graph 13 – ITU occupancy by region – Highland coming back down now. No reason for panic anywhere.
Graph 14 – Hospital occupancy by region – trending down everywhere – all of them are showing really significant drops in occupancy, except for Forth Valley. Really, quite a few of these hospitals are heading fast apparently towards no covid patients.
Graphs 15&16 – Vaccinations as seen below.
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪