Data for 13th February 2021

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Hello Friends! 🕵️‍♂️📰📉

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/ and https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats

 

Data 13th February 2021:

908 new +ve tests (⇧9.4% since yesterday)

22259 new tests reporting (⇧16%)

(- of these 13673 were NHS (61%) and 8586 were community (39%).)

[There has clearly been a significant change in testing policy and I would really like to know why and how it came about.]

This is 4.1% positive percentage rate (⇩0.2%)

 

In total including repeat tests 1091 were +ve – this is a 4.9% rate (⇩0.3%)

 

4530 newly tested individuals reported (⇧28%).

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 104, Borders 4, Dumfries and Galloway 10, Fife 35, Forth Valley 119, Grampian 57, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 235, Highland 28, Lanarkshire 171, Lothian 103, Orkney 1, Shetland 0, Tayside 40, Western Isles 1

 

45 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩22)

110 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩5)

1449 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩1.6%). As at 10th February, there were 1046 people delayed in hospital (⇩4.6% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 1,173,445 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 14,009 their second.

This means that since yesterday 59,820 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 443 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 150 people had the coronavirus in the week 31st January to 6th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 115 the previous week.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – If I were to guess, I’d say that this green line is our new Covid Floor. I’ve been predicting we’ll bounce around here indefinitely for a while now. My mind hasn’t changed.

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Another floor! I just don’t believe under current testing practices and/or with an endemic virus and/or with hospital infections as they are, we can get much below this percentage of positives.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals number dropping like a stone.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall fast – at the current rate of decline it will be at the same level as the delayed discharges within 10 days. ITU occupancy falling again. Deaths are flat, it seems – more later.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – Community testing vs NHS testing has changed – the strategy has clearly been altered. It’s not clear neither why this is nor what the effect on positivity will be.

Graph 5

 

Graphs 6&7 – These continue to be a puzzle – but please note the deaths are by date of registration. We have covid deaths continuing to emerge from a smaller and smaller pool of positives… but they are coming down. Deaths by date of death look a little different.

Graphs 6&7

Graph 8 – Here we see deaths by date of occurrence. This tells a really different story and suggests that the change in lag between Waves 2 and 3 is a reporting artefact. What we see here is that on 25th November on the x-axis (which means 11th December for date of death), covid deaths started to occur at a higher rate per positive test. There was a significant change to the relationship between positive tests and death at that time. The relationship reverted back the same as in Wave 2 again by around 6th January (ie 22nd January adding 16days) – as you can see the peaks are now matching for the latest peak in positive tests. To summarise, I’m postulating that we saw more covid deaths than we would have expected from the positive tests from 11th December to 22nd January.

(The latest death we have by date of occurrence from NRS is 31st January.)

Graph 8

 

Graph 9 – Are we losing (and did we lose before from 9th December on x-axis, ie 25th December for date of ITU occupancy) correlation between positive tests and ITU occupancy? This would imply we had from Christmas an increase in the number of people in ITU compared to what we would have expected from the positive tests count. It also may be the case this is beginning to happen again, because we can see that ITU occupancy has again departed from what was predictable before based on positive tests count. (Remember for deaths we have to add 16 days to the date on the x-axis. I know it’s confusing!)

Graph 9

 

Graph 10 – ITU occupancy falling so fast nationwide.

Graph 10

 

Graph 11 – ITU occupancy by region – Highland coming back down now.

Graph 11

 

Graph 12 – Hospital occupancy by region – trending down everywhere – all of them are showing really significant drops in occupancy, except for Forth Valley.

Graph 12

 

Graphs 13&14 – Vaccinations as seen below.

Graphs 13&14

 

Graphs 15&16 – ONS Prevalence as the year progresses. Can you see the Infected on the second bar chart? (Just keeping this in from yesterday’s post.) The reduction in community infection in Week 5 is really encouraging. And there is still a huge difference between number infected and number not infected! (Also, apologies – I haven’t labelled the y-axis in the second graph… It’s percentage.)

Graphs 15&16

 

Graph 17 – Covid deaths still exceeding excess deaths – as shown yesterday. So covid is displacing other deaths?

Graph 17

 

Graph 18 – I’ve been tracking deaths by location since vaccination was rolled out. It’s not been great news on that front, which is why I haven’t shared it. But people have been asking for this, and I’ve decided to oblige. I’ve been worried as the messenger I’ll get shot! Please don’t shoot me, but the truth is that the deaths rose as vaccinations were rolled out. Correlation is not causation of course, and I’d like to stress I am not suggesting there is any causation. Deaths are declining again, which is great news. But obviously, this is something that I (and others) have noticed. Always a lag for NRS data – these are the most up to date.

Graph 18

 

Graph 19 – Covid deaths by age group – with vaccinations included. Again, these are most up to date data.

Graph 19

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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3 Comments

  • Thank you for maintaining and producing these. It is really appreciated and becoming a daily stop for data.

    (Happy to discuss any or all of these by email if that is preferable).

    With the current tighter restrictions than in the summer, why isn’t September the predicted covid floor?

    For graph 6 and 8, could/have you looked a 14 day average (and would that smooth out different reporting delays over the festive period where correlation diverges)?

    (And due to my inner consistency pendant) Is there a reason that some graphs start at different dates?
    Really like the max and percentage lines, (and as it is a new one) could these be added to the vaccine graphs (and if there is reason to have different start dates for different graphs, could the vaccine graph start from when the vaccine became available)?

    Again thank you for your hard work,
    All the best.

    Reply
    • Hello! You are welcome! I’m glad you’re enjoying it.

      September isn’t the covid floor because this is coronavirus season and September was not, and because the floor will change, depending on testing strategy and conditions in the population. This isn’t necessarily a solid concept, it’s just my prediction based on what I’m seeing – this isn’t particularly scientific, but I have a sense of what is happening with the numbers from having looked at them for so long every day. I don’t mean there’s no covid around and that’s what the Floor represents – not at all. Just that this period of extraordinary high levels of positivity is coming to an end. We know there is a lot of covid in hospitals in a way that it wasn’t in September too. So this will be a limiting factor to how low they can go. There will be a false positive floor too. And we will be watching for that.

      I will try and look at a 14 day average – but I think too much smoothing just hides important features in the data. I don’t really want to smooth out reporting delays over the festive period. As I said (maybe not that effectively) in my posts, there are different things going on there, but either indicates a rise in positivity during December. I’ll do a 14 day average and see what it shows up though. It’s impossible to know until it’s been tried.

      The graphs start at different dates for historical reasons. These posts evolved over the weeks in September and October for my daily posts to Us for Them Scotland to what they are now. Some graphs were started on the day I started updating the facebook page, some started later and I tried to capture the start of the first wave.

      And thanks for the suggestion on the vaccine graph – it could start from then. You mean the mortality vaccine graph? But I wanted to put the mortality in context of the whole pandemic… But I do understand your point. In fact, I will add that in to my to-do list for tomorrow too.

      Thanks for your thoughtful and considered comment. I really appreciate any and all (constructive) input, so do keep it coming!

      Lots of love, Christine ❤

      Reply
  • Thank you for taking the time to put together such an in depth reply.

    Totally understand not wanting to over smooth the graphs, just been wondering if it would help the festive period fit the historic correlation. (Maybe even a festive zoomed in graph may allow you to “drop” the forced 7 day lag).

    You have assumed correctly that I was referring to the new mortality/vaccine graphs.

    Thank you again, assuming this is the best place for sensible discussion/suggestions. Would be wonderful if everyone could work together more often.

    All the best.

    Reply

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