Data for 12th February 2021

Hello Friends! ?️‍♂️??

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/ and from National Records for Scotland at https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/deaths-involving-coronavirus-covid-19-in-scotland

Data 12th February 2021:

830 new +ve tests (this is the exact same number as yesterday) – this happened recently before that the numbers matched two days in a row.

19184 new tests reporting (⇩20%)

(- of these 12813 were NHS (67%) and 5692 were community (33%).)

This is 4.3% positive percentage rate (⇧0.9%)

In total including repeat tests 998 were +ve – this is a 5.2% rate (⇧1.2%)

3529 newly tested individuals reported (⇩4%).

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 119, Borders 4, Dumfries and Galloway 13, Fife 36, Forth Valley 85, Grampian 20, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 257, Highland 25, Lanarkshire 133, Lothian 100, Orkney 2, Shetland 0, Tayside 23, Western Isles 13

67 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧19) – this is a huge number of deaths reported today, relative to days recently. And since ‘cases’ have been falling for so long, it really is a grim mystery where they are all coming from.

115 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇧6)

1472 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩1.8%). As at 10th February, there were 1046 people delayed in hospital (⇩4.6% from previous week).

Vaccinations

As of today, 1,113,625 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 13,566 their second.

This means that since yesterday 64878 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 371 with their second.

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 150 people had the coronavirus in the week 31st January to 6th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 115 the previous week.

Comment:

Graph 1 – Positive tests on the green line, representing 60% of October maximum. I continue to be amazed by this graph – it is just not typical of an epidemiological decline at all – and it almost looks like it’s beginning a new linear decline. Really, it’s a puzzle.

Graph 1

Graph 2 – The daily percentage positive rate has not been this low since September (not including the exceptionally low rate seen in October due to a reporting issue)!

Graph 2

Graph 3 – Just brilliant news how low community testing is going – a further indication that symptoms in the community are falling.

Graph 3

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall fast, ITU occupancy rising briefly (we hope). Deaths are not falling so quickly.

Graph 4

Graphs 5&6 – These continue to be a puzzle. We have covid deaths continuing to emerge from a smaller and smaller pool of positives. These are by date of report rather than date of death. I have been doing some work on this – more coming.

Graphs 5&6

Graph 7- ITU occupancy falling fast nationwide.

Graph 7

Graph 8 – ITU occupancy by region – Tayside and Grampian have gone back up to 5 patients in ITU.

Graph 8

Graph 9 – Hospital occupancy by region – trending down everywhere – all of them are showing really significant drops in occupancy, except for Forth Valley.

Graph 9

Graphs 10&11 – Vaccinations as seen below.

Graphs 10&11

Graphs 12&13 – ONS Prevalence as the year progresses. Can you see the Infected on the second bar chart? Sorry, y-axis on right hand chart is percentage. Will label it for next appearance.

Graphs 12&13

Image 14 – I have illustrated this in a new way too for ONS prevalence. 1 in 150 is equivalent to around 7 in 1000 people infected. I’ve coloured the infected people orange.

Image 14

Graph 15 – Covid deaths still exceeding excess deaths – and by quite a signficant number.

Graph 15

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Lots of love ❤

Stay sane ? Stay strong ?

Christine x