Data for 11th February 2021

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Hello Friends! 📰🕵️‍♂️📉

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Data 11th February 2021:

830 new +ve tests (⇧3.4% since yesterday)

24121 new tests reporting (⇧24%)

(- of these 16631 were NHS (69%) and 7490 were community (31%).)

This is 3.4% positive percentage rate (⇩0.7%)

 

In total including repeat tests 962 were +ve – this is a 4.0% rate (⇩0.8%)

 

3662 newly tested individuals reported (⇩8%).

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 116, Borders 5, Dumfries and Galloway 31, Fife 23, Forth Valley 73, Grampian 45, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 243, Highland 44, Lanarkshire 145, Lothian 81, Orkney 2, Shetland 0, Tayside 19, Western Isles 3

 

48 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩2)

109 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩4)

1499 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩2.8%). As at 10th February, there were 1046 people delayed in hospital (⇩4.6% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 1048747 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 13195 their second.

This means that since yesterday 63178 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 329 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 115 people had the coronavirus in the week 24th to 30th January – this is down from 1 in 110 the previous week.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – Positive tests on the green line, representing 60% of October maximum. I continue to be amazed by this graph – it is just not typical of an epidemiological decline at all (nor was the rise after Christmas) – and it almost looks like it’s beginning a new linear decline now. Really, it’s a puzzle – and there has to a non-epidemiological contributing factor. There is a number of possible explanations and I am keeping them all in mind. Epidemics follow Gompertz curves (2nd wave looks typical) and there is nothing Gompertzian about this ‘third wave’.

Graph 1

Graph 2 – The percentage positive is levelling off but still trending down. The daily percentage positive rate has not been this low since September (not including the exceptionally low rate seen 18th October due to a reporting issue)!

Graph 2

Graph 3 – Look how low newly tested individuals is going! This is just brilliant news – a further indication that cases in the community are going really low.

Graph 3

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy falling fast now too, ITU occupancy falling. Deaths are not falling so quickly – more below.

Graph 4

Graph 5 – Community testing is so low and NHS testing so high – the second highest ever number ever! Well over twice as many NHS tests compared to Community tests. Are there twice as many positive tests coming from hospitals and hospital staff as from the community?

Graph 5

Graph 6 – Look how high this ratio has gone – highest ever by some way.

Graph 6

Graphs 7&8 – These two graphs are annoying me! There is something funny going on. The 18 day lag applied in the Second Wave, and we know that this was the case across the UK. In the ‘Third Wave’, the lag appears to have shortened. But clearly, we have this untethered deaths curve latterly, which is not apparently emerging from positive tests, which is very strange. I made some explanation of this yesterday, which still applies today. More work required.

Graphs 7&8

Graph 9 – ITU occupancy falling fast nationwide.

Graph 9

Graph 10 – ITU occupancy by region. I’ve brought Highland back in to the graph because its ITU occupancy is rising.

Graph 10

Graph 11 – Hospital occupancy by region – trending down everywhere – in some places extraordinarily fast. Golden Jubilee has its first 3 patients since the start of the pandemic. Not sure what’s going on there.

Graph 11

Graphs 12&13 – Vaccinations as seen below. They continue apace. Highest number of daily doses ever delivered yesterday.

Graphs 12&13

 

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Lots of love ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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