Hello Friends! 🕵️♂️📰📉
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Data 10th February 2021:
803 new +ve tests (⇩2.4% since yesterday)
19469 new tests reporting (⇧48%)
(- of these 13246 were NHS (68%) and 6223 were community (32%).)
This is 4.1% positive percentage rate (⇩2.1%)
In total including repeat tests 944 were +ve – this is a 4.8% rate (⇩2.4%)
3983 newly tested individuals reported (⇧13%).
Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:
Ayrshire and Arran 97, Borders 7, Dumfries and Galloway 19, Fife 34, Forth Valley 82, Grampian 46, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 210, Highland 19, Lanarkshire 130, Lothian 109, Orkney 1, Shetland 0, Tayside 45, Western Isles 4
50 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩8)
113 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇧1)
1542 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩4.7%). As at 3rd February, there were 1097 people delayed in hospital.
As of today, 985569 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 12866 their second.
This means that since yesterday 57447 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 609 with their second.
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 115 people had the coronavirus in the week 24th to 30th January – this is down from 1 in 110 the previous week.
Graph 1 – Positive tests on the green line, representing 60% of October maximum. I expect to hover around here from now on.
Graph 2 – The percentage positive is levelling off. I don’t think it will drop below the December level.
Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are continuing to fall really fast – this is fantastic news.
Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy falling fast now too, ITU occupancy had fallen through the level of October peak and was in a steep decline, but has picked up the last couple of days. Deaths are not falling so quickly – more below.
Graph 5 – I’ve added this in because I’m looking at hospital covid deaths really closely. This is where the majority of covid deaths are happening – by quite a long way.
Graph 6 – Community testing is so low and NHS testing so high! This is absolutely not what I was expecting to happen with all the talk of huge numbers of tests daily being in the pipeline. The ratio of NHS to Community tests is today 17:8. If the prevalence in each of the groups were equal, that would imply 550 positives were coming from the NHS testing and only 250 from community testing throughout the whole of the Scottish community. Can this be true? We don’t know because we cannot get the positivity split between the two channels in the reported statistics.
Graph 7 – Still a marked trend of positive test numbers following the number of tests reported – the red line is running parallel to the tops of the blue bars. This is an indication we are reaching endemic level – constant in the population tested, or the false positive rate. Or a combination of the two.
Graphs 8&9 – These two graphs are annoying me! There is something funny going on. The 18 day lag applied in the Second Wave, and we know that this was the case across the UK. In the ‘Third Wave’, the lag appears to have shortened. But clearly, we have this untethered deaths curve latterly, which is not apparently emerging from positive tests, which is very strange. I made some explanation of this yesterday, which still applies today. More work required.
Graph 8 and Graph 9
Graph 10 – ITU occupancy falling fast nationwide.
Graph 11 – ITU occupancy by region. Tayside has fallen off the graph today because the number went below 5.
Graph 12 – Hospital occupancy by region – all trending down except the anomalous Forth Valley, which has come down today.
Graphs 13&14 – Vaccinations as seen below. They continue apace. Of course, we should continue to see new positives fall as the vaccine is rolled out.
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪