Data for 9th January 2021

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Hello Friends! 🕵️‍♂️📰📉
 
Today’s Data 9th January 2021:
1865 new +ve tests (⇩19% on yesterday) – we’re seeing huge fluctuations day by day.
26352 new tests reporting (⇩16%)
This is 7.1% positive percentage rate (⇩ just 0.2% on yesterday)
 
In total including repeat tests 2299 were +ve – this is an 8.7% rate
 
7368 newly tested individuals reported (⇩10%).
 
Local data:
Greater Glasgow and Clyde 692, Lothian 220, Lanarkshire 390, Tayside 172, Grampian 192, Ayrshire and Arran 171, Fife 146, Forth Valley 128, Three island boards 4.
 
93 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩1)
109 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇧7)
1596 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇧4%)
 
Comment:
Graph 1 – Positive tests have reached a new steady-ish state. It’s like it stepped up almost instantly at Christmas, which is really really strange and not particularly typical of epidemiology, I’d say. I think there simply must have been some change in the testing.
Graph 2 – As always seems to happen, the high number of tests is bringing the positive percentage down as shown in the red line. The number of tests is rising again, and we are generally finding more new people to test. The blue line shows the rise in positive cases in the context of the green and yellow lines. Still a really small ratio of the total tests performed.
Graph 3 – the number of NHS tests reporting is generally increasing.
Graph 4 – the number of tests overall is climbing gradually, but what is interesting is how positive tests have taken this huge step up and then immediately reaching this new equilibrium state. This is so strange, epidemiologically speaking.
Graph 5 – This graph is so interesting, because it shows that all the measures have an inflection point on Christmas Day and positive tests, deaths, ITU and hospital occupancy all started to rise at the same time, indicative of there being many cases in hospital. Deaths, proportionally, are rising faster than any other measure – notice how the slope of that curve exceeds the others. Truly, this is bizarre and should be impossible – it could be explained by delays in reporting, and probably is to some extent, but it really indicates we are over-sampling the dying with the tests.
Graph 6 – This pair of graphs is really important and shows very very clearly how this latest rise in positive test coincides with an apparently higher case fatality rate and a decreased lag. This is really strange and shows that something has definitely and quite profoundly changed compared to October. It suggests we are oversampling those arriving in hospital, those likely to be admitted to ITU, and those who are gravely ill (and therefore more likely to die) and that this is where a larger portion of positives are coming from recently compared to before.
 
Tweet and share the graphs!
Lots of love. ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪
Christine x
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