Data for 8th January 2021

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Hello Friends!  🕵📉
Today’s Data 8th January 2021:
2309 new +ve tests (⇩13% on yesterday)
31444 new tests reporting (⇧17%)
This is 7.3% positive percentage rate (2.7% less than yesterday – a big drop).
In total including repeat tests 2557 were +ve – an 8% rate (⇩3% on yesterday).
8156 newly tested individuals reported (⇩11%).
Local data:
Greater Glasgow and Clyde 692, Lothian 220, Lanarkshire 390, Tayside 172, Grampian 192, Ayrshire and Arran 171, Fife 146, Forth Valley 128, Three island boards 4.
93 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧15)
102 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇧2 since yesterday)
1530 come through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇧4%)
Comment:
Graph 1 – Positive tests seem to have reached a new steady state. But that’s the most tests done ever on one day today.
Graph 2 – That has been the highest number of tests reported in one day ever. And as always seems to happen, the high number of tests has brought the positive percentage down as shown in the red line. More in Graph 3 about the relative numbers of tests – the balance has changed in the two test channels. The yellow line shows that the number of newly tested individuals seems to be rising again – it just shows this screening of people is gaining pace again – eventually we will run out of new people to test, surely! The blue line shows the rise in positive cases in the context of the green and yellow lines. Still a really small ratio of the total tests performed.
Graph 3 – the number of NHS tests reported was the highest ever
Graph 4 – the number of tests overall is also the highest ever.
Graph 5 – This graph is so interesting, because it shows that all the measures have an inflection point on Christmas Day and positive tests, deaths, ITU and hospital occupancy all started to rise at the same time. This is strongly indicative of there being many cases in hospital. What will be interesting is to see if there is an immediate flattening in the other measures now that cases have flattened. The death count is terrible. But if we are over-sampling in hospital, it is the natural conclusion that we will see a lot of covid deaths.
Graph 6 – Have positive percentages peaked??? They are liable to change a bit but I think we can be confident about this. Christmas was two weeks ago and so if it had been Christmas that caused an increase in infections, we would have been expecting them to rise significantly now – not to have risen and be falling. But let’s see what next week brings.
Graph 7 – This graph is really important and shows very clearly how this latest rise in positive test coincides with an apparently higher case fatality rate and a decreased lag. This is really strange and shows that something has definitely and quite profoundly changed compared to October. It suggests we are oversampling those arriving in hospital, those likely to be admitted to ITU, and those who are gravely ill (and therefore more likely to die) and that this is where a larger portion of positives are coming from recently compared to before.
Tweet and share the graphs!
Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪
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