Hello Friends!
Today’s Data 5th January 2021:
2529 new +ve tests (⇧9% on yesterday)
18336 new tests reporting (⇧33%)
This is 14% positive percentage rate.
In total including repeat tests 2722 were +ve – a 15% rate.
8021 newly tested individuals reported.
Local data:
Greater Glasgow and Clyde 695,
Lothian 322,
Lanarkshire 388,
Tayside 210,
Grampian 220,
Ayrshire and Arran 161,
Fife 140,
Forth Valley 146,
Three island boards 1.
11 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve
93 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇧10 since yesterday)
1347 come through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇧7%)
Comment:
Graph 1 – Positive tests have gone nuts. This is my scientific analysis!
Graph 2 – Lots going on here! First, the green line. You can see there have been some huge fluctuations in new tests – around Christmas but these are still trending down, actually. More in later graphs. There is shown in the red line an absolutely incredible (in the true meaning of the word) rise in positivity. The dotted line shows that this happened literally overnight. And it has now settled down a bit and is fluctuating around this new immensely elevated level. You can see the yellow line showing newly tested individuals has been fluctuating more than normal – still trending down. And there has been a general rise in the number of positive tests.
Graph 3 – Since Christmas Day, certainly, positive tests and ITU occupancy and Hospital occupancy have all been rising simultaneously. This is so different to what we saw in October. It’s only explicable if the positive tests are coming in a significant part from existing hospital patients. This is supported from anecdotes I am receiving and also supports what I have been suspecting to an increasing degree.
Graph 4 – Shows a stark difference since Christmas with an elevated number of positives still following the number of tests performed.
Graph 5 – You can see that the number of tests performed has settled down after the Christmas surge at a slightly higher level than they were before.
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Lots of love.
Stay sane Stay strong