Data for 24th January 2021

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Hello Friends! 🕵️‍♂️📰📉

 

Data 24th January 2021:

1195 new +ve tests (⇩9% on yesterday)

19339 new tests reporting (⇩5%)

This is 6.2% positive percentage rate (⇩0.2%)

 

In total including repeat tests 1424 were +ve – this is a 7.4% rate (⇩1.9%)

 

5293 newly tested individuals reported (⇩10%).

 

Local data:

Ayrshire and Arran 86, Borders 21, Dumfries and Galloway 40,
Fife 44, Forth Valley 72, Grampian 126, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 363, Highland 34, Lanarkshire 228, Lothian 111, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 69, Western Isles 1

 

1 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩75)

157 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩2)

2011 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩3.5%)

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 404038 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 5383 their second.

This means that since yesterday 23371 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 195 with their second.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – No change in positive test numbers. They are falling so fast and linearly.

Graph 2 – Continued rapid fall in positive percentage rate since New Year. There is something I want to draw your attention to that I’ve been watching for a while. You can see in the orange dotted line, which is the daily positive percentage rate, that in the past this has fluctuated a lot day to day. (The red line shows the 7 day average.) Weekends have returned higher percentage positive rates generally, which we always found a bit strange. However, that has changed since the new year. We see a steady drop and no fluctuations at all, since the really unusually large fluctuations around New Year. I have no explanation for this, but it is a really significant change. (Please note, as you can see on the sheets which you can access, for the purposes of this trendline, I have calculated the percentage rate of positive tests to all new tests. This is just one of the ways the government has calculated it but I have continued to do so for clarity and continuity.) Daily new tests are limping up in general, but they really seem to be levelling off. Newly tested individuals continue to fall.

Graph 3 – NHS tests are quite high historically and Community tests are low. There has been such a change in this relationship in recent weeks.

Graph 4 – This graph is showing that positive test numbers are still very much influenced by the number of tests overall, but the proportion that come back positive really is consistently dropping.

Graph 5 – Positive tests falling in every single region, and falling in parallel. It looks really strange and we have not seen it look like this before.

Graph 6 – Both hospital and ITU occupancy seem to be flattening, that’s been two days in a row ITU occupancy has dropped – as expected in time with new positive cases dropping.

Graphs 7&8 – These are very interesting graphs that seem to suggest we should be able to trust that ITU occupancy and deaths are both peaking, or approaching the peak. The lags are holding up again and these graphs seem to be making more sense than they were a couple of weeks ago.

Graph 9 – Vaccinations against positive tests. (Graph by my daughters 7 and 10, who are keeping it updated.)

Graph 10 – First doses of vaccinations against second doses – elder daughter identified a need for this one! I will be interested to see what happens with the second doses over time.

Tweet and share the graphs!

Lots of love ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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4 Comments

  • Loving the information Christine and girls. Thanks for the clarity and sense.
    Kathryn x

    Reply
  • Hi, I too have noticed the positivity rate has consistently been much higher at weekends. So much so I contacted Public Health Scotland for their view, positing more infected people were turning up for a test at weekends. A principal data scientist responded saying it was not that more infected people were turning up but that less uninfected people were turning up, suggesting key workers who are tested regularly, such as nurses, were tested during the week. To eliminate the “problem” they smoothed the data over 7 days. Initially I thought he was just playing with words but on seconds thought it does seem to make sense.

    As you know, smoothing or averaging data always results in loss of information so what they are doing is hiding some underlying artefact which we have failed to recognise. It is possible the daily positivity plots actually comprise two separate plots superimposed. I’m conjecturing but it may be that week day tests comprise symptomatics and assymptomatics but weekend tests mainly comprise symptomatics I.e. no key workers. This means there are two cohorts, each with its own underlying positivity rate but the PHS daily plot combines them, simply because they don’t report (I presume they record) reason for test along with the result.

    If I can find the time I may be able to disentangle the two underlying positivity rates, making the assumption the difference in test numbers at weekends relate to key worker tests which would mainly be assymptomatic.

    On another topic, I wrote a paper in December about false positives in Scotland. It explains (for “dummies”) what is meant by false positives and shows the effect on the official case numbers if these are taken into account. The data plots end at December but it is straightforward to update these to the latest numbers. If you are interested I can send you a copy.

    Reply
    • Please definitely do stay in touch with us! I think we should be in contact. Lots of love!

      Reply

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