Hello Friends! 📰🕵️♂️📉
Data 23rd January 2021:
1307 new +ve tests (⇩12% on yesterday)
20393 new tests reporting (⇩22%)
This is 6.4% positive percentage rate (⇧0.7%)
In total including repeat tests 1887 were +ve – this is a 9.3% rate (⇧2.4%)
5864 newly tested individuals reported (⇧2.1%).
Ayrshire and Arran 108, Borders 22, Dumfries and Galloway 32,
Fife 58, Forth Valley 69, Grampian 100, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 382, Highland 44, Lanarkshire 256, Lothian 155, Orkney 0, Shetland 2, Tayside 79, Western Isles 0
76 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧5)
159 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩2)
2085 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇧1.6%)
As of today, 380667 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 5188 their second.
This means that since yesterday 22183 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 499 with their second.
Graph 1 – I am finding the plummeting positive test numbers absolutely astonishing. I keep expecting it to change, but it remains linear and very steep.
Graph 2 – Continued rapid fall in positive percentage rate since New Year. Daily new tests are limping up in general, but I’m starting to think these really have peaked. Newly tested individuals continue to fall, which makes sense because we will naturally run out of new people to test.
Graph 3 – Positive tests falling in every single region. There is no area where positives aren’t falling. This is good news, but I find it really strange.
Graph 4 – Both hospital and ITU occupancy seem to be slowing – as expected with new positive cases dropping. This is the first day ITU occupancy has fallen since Christmas. Deaths are still troubling.
Graph 5 – This is so interesting! It gives me confidence that ITU occupancy is peaking now. This is good news. We have seen a reduced lag between test and ITU occupancy since mid December, but that seems to have lengthened again. It will be really interesting to see how this graph changes in the next few days.
Graph 6 – I am adding this one for the first time because I find it so interesting. The case fatality rate was rising significantly for four months through September to the end of December, but it now seems to be dropping really significantly and really fast, which started as the test numbers began to fall. I find this all really quite puzzling – all of it! I found the rising case fatality rate puzzling and I do find the fall surprising also. I will be having a think about it over the next few days and consulting with better qualified people than me to discuss it. (18 day lag used because it was what we saw it the autumn for positive test to death.) Obviously, we have vaccinated a lot of people and the most vulnerable too and the government expects this to lessen disease severity. But I would not have expected that to cause this rapid decline. We have seen similar rates of decline before… but not for such a sustained period.
Graph 7 – Vaccinations against positive tests, for your information.
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪