Data for 15th January 2021

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Hello Friends!

 

Today’s Data 15th January 2021:

2160 new +ve tests (⇧27% on yesterday)

34932 new tests reporting (⇧35%) – this is the highest ever number of tests reported in on day. Quite astonishing.

This is 6.2% positive percentage rate (⇩0.5% on yesterday)

 

In total including repeat tests 2617 were +ve – this is a 7.5% rate.

 

7743 newly tested individuals reported (⇧32%).

 

Local data:

Greater Glasgow and Clyde 636, Lothian 262, Lanarkshire 339, Tayside 131, Grampian 162, Ayrshire and Arran 169, Fife 134, Forth Valley 138, Three island boards 5 (4 Shetland 1 Orkney).

 

61 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩3)

141 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩1)

1860 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇧2%)

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 224840 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 3331 their second.

This means that yesterday 16633 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 141 with their second.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – Overall, the trend for positives is unchanged and falling. Worth remembering the number of tests reported today was extremely high.

Graph 2 – The percentage positive continues to fall, very rapidly indeed! Newly tested individuals is still flat, although the number of new tests is very high. It looks from Graph 3 that we must be doing a lot of tests of those in the community now.

Graph 3 – Huge number of tests today, both NHS and Community.

Graph 4 – Highest ever testing day. Positives still hovering around this new equilibrium, roughly. Settled down from the really noisy signal we saw at the beginning of the year.

Graph 5 – Positive tests are falling across all regions, having all peaked at roughly the same time. This is great news! But it does look a little strange.

Graph 6 – The positivity across the regions is continuing to fall, having risen and peaked across the country simultaneously, and neighbouring areas look really similar. I will be doing a deeper delve in to this over the next few days.

Graph 7 – It looks a bit like hospital occupancy rise is slowing – quite soon to say this, but it should really start to slow now that new positive cases has been dropping for a while. It’ll be interesting to see how this compares to the October ‘wave’. Deaths continue to rise, again, as expected with the preceding rise in positives. And ITU occupancy is still climbing.

Graphs 8&9 – Check this out: lag from positive tests to death has shortened significantly (indicating a significant proportion of positive tests are now occurring people closer to death) and the deadliness of covid has apparently continued to climb. These two phenomena actually go together, logically, and once we have got past the current average lag of positive test to death (now less than 18 days) we should see it start to decline – if the positive tests are truly indicative of a covid case.

Graph 10 – ITU is filling up in Glasgow, but the gradient is lower than it was in the spring and we are currently at just over half the peak in spring. The rest of the picture is a little messy.. (Missing regions, or missing data, show where the number of patients was fewer than 5.)

Graph 11 – Again, it’s a complicated picture but you can see that some areas have more patients with covid than in the spring. It is clear the hospitals are experiencing covid pressure, though how the occupancy compares to other winters is not totally clear to me on the whole. (As above, missing regions, or missing data, show where the number of patients was fewer than 5.)

Graph 12 – vaccinations graph by my daughters. Two axes showing vaccinations versus new ‘cases’. Let’s see what happens! That’s a lot of people got their first dose, but second dose a little slower.

Tweet and share the graphs!

Lots of love ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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