Hello Friends! 🕵️♂️📰📉
Today’s Data 13th January 2021:
1949 new +ve tests (⇧4% on yesterday)
23432 new tests reporting (⇧34%)
This is 8.3% positive percentage rate (⇩2.7% on yesterday)
In total including repeat tests 2382 were +ve – this is a 14% rate.
7483 newly tested individuals reported (⇧13%).
Greater Glasgow and Clyde 592, Lothian 192, Lanarkshire 358, Tayside 160, Grampian 166, Ayrshire and Arran 134, Fife 116, Forth Valley 90, Three island boards 3 (all Shetland).
79 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧25)
134 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇧1)
1794 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇧4%)
Graph 1 – After the take off at over 4 days from Christmas, there has been a very fast fall in cases. This still looks really unnatural to me. It does have a Gompertzian appearance – as occurs in epidemiological phenomena – this is where there is an ever decreasing gradient: a fast but slowing rise, a sudden turn and then a slower fall. But that only applies to the 7-day averages. If you look at the dotted line, which shows absolute numbers by day, the situation looks much less natural and with more daily variation than we have seen before. You can see how different it looks to the peak in October.Graph 2 – The number of new tests is rising but seems to be slowing. The percentage positive is falling very significantly now, after its meteoric and uncanny rise; it is especially encouraging when you look at the dotted line for this curve. This is a sustained fall now. The number of newly tested individuals seems to continue to be flat, but if anything, falling a little in its trend line.
Graph 3 – This is quite a big day for tests – the third highest ever for NHS tests but quite a low community testing day. It is really interesting how these test numbers are rising and falling in sync with each other. I cannot understand how this might be coming about.
Graph 4 – Here we see on the two separate axes how positive tests followed test numbers for months, but stepped up really fast immediately after Christmas and then has remained at this elevated level before dropping slightly.
Graph 5 – This is an encouraging picture of a flattening or dropping in absolute numbers of positives in all regions simultaneously, but I still struggle to explain how this can happen epidemiologically in such beautiful synchronicity in all areas of the country.
Graph 6 – Again, synchronicity in the peaking of the positive percentage rates by region! We know the last few data points always change a bit in retrospect, so don’t pay too much attention to the last few data points, but we can certainly see a simultaneous fall in positivity has occurred in all regions at one time.
Graph 7 – We see positive tests have peaked, and going by the previous curve, that hospital occupancy should soon follow and flatten, and shortly thereafter ITU occupancy will peak. That is if the previous ‘wave’ (in October) has any predictive value.
Graphs 8 – This is a new graph that I made with the help of my daughters in home school today. Let’s start tracking vaccinations. It all looks a bit strange because I couldn’t find the data on daily vaccinations before 11th January in the little time I had between trying to deliver home education. It is a little embryonic at this early stage, but this graph will become like an old friend in time! Anyway, it’ll be interesting to see how positive tests change now the vaccine is being rolled out. We’d expect them to be suppressed, right? It would be interesting to get data of vaccination by age…
Graph 9 – Here is ITU occupancy from across the country. Clearly numbers are rising in Glasgow and a little in Lothian and Dumfries and Galloway as well. (Regions that are missing are not there because they have never had more than 4 patients at one time throughout the pandemic and numbers are not reported below 5 due to patient confidentiality implications.)
Graph 10 – This shows where the pressure points are and how the hospital occupancy compares to the first wave. It does look serious and undoubtedly staff will be under lots of stress, but we are doing a great deal more testing now, and analysis of these graphs must take that in to account. (Regions that are missing are not there because they have never had more than 4 patients at one time throughout the pandemic and numbers are not reported below 5 due to patient confidentiality implications.)
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Please let us know what you think about these graphs, check the sheets, comment on the commentary; we love to talk. We’re still getting to grips with the emails, so be patient if we haven’t got back to you yet – thank you so much for the amazing positive response you have given us. We just love it! It’s been absolutely wonderful.
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