Hello Friends! 🕵️♂️📰📉
Today’s Data 12th January 2021:
1875 new +ve tests (⇧5% on yesterday)
17517 new tests reporting (⇩1%)
This is 11% positive percentage rate (⇧1% on yesterday)
In total including repeat tests 2098 were +ve – this is a 12% rate.
6598 newly tested individuals reported (⇩4%).
Greater Glasgow and Clyde 607, Lothian 214, Lanarkshire 280, Tayside 109, Grampian 136, Ayrshire and Arran 162, Fife 101, Forth Valley 83, Three island boards 10.
54 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧53)
133 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇧7)
1717 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇧3%)
Graph 1 – After the take off at over 4 days from Christmas, there has been a very fast fall in cases. This still looks really unnatural to me. It does have a Gompertzian appearance – as occurs in epidemiological phenomena – this is where there is an ever decreasing gradient: a fast but slowing rise, a sudden turn and then a slower fall. But that only applies to the 7-day averages. If you look at the dotted line, which shows absolute numbers by day, the situation looks much less natural and with more variation than we have seen before.
Graph 2 – The number of new tests is rising but seems to be slowing. The percentage positive is falling very significantly now, after its meteoric and uncanny rise; it is especially encouraging when you look at the dotted line for this curve. This is a sustained fall now. The number of newly tested individuals seems to continue to be flat, but if anything, falling a little.
Graph 3 – This is quite a low tests day – from both channels (NHS and Community)
Graph 4 – This is an encouraging picture of a flattening in positives in all regions simultaneously, but I still struggle to explain how this can happen epidemiologically where all regions are moving in sync.
Graph 5 – Again, synchronicity in the peaking of the positive percentage rates by region!
Graph 6 – We see positive tests have peaked, and going by the previous curve, that hospital occupancy should soon follow and flatten, and shortly thereafter ITU occupancy will peak. That is if the previous ‘wave’ (in October) has any predictive value.
Graphs 7&8 – There is always a time after the weekend when the low number of deaths reported on Sunday and Monday mess the averages up a little – so I wouldn’t take these curves to be too reliable at the moment – just added them for your interest. The apparently increasing deadliness of Covid seems to be settling down again. That’s good!
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪