Data for 11th January 2021

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Hello Friends! 🕵️‍♂️📰📉

 

Today’s Data 11th January 2021:

1782 new +ve tests (⇩5% on yesterday)

17730 new tests reporting (⇩15%)

This is 10% positive percentage rate (⇧1% on yesterday)

 

In total including repeat tests 2041 were +ve – this is a 12% rate.

 

6888 newly tested individuals reported (⇩5%).

 

Local data:

Greater Glasgow and Clyde 594, Lothian 174, Lanarkshire 307, Tayside 129, Grampian 121, Ayrshire and Arran 144, Fife 71, Forth Valley 85, Three island boards 0.

1 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩2)

126 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇧3)

1664 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇧4%)

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – After the take off at over 4 days from Christmas, there has been a very fast slowing and now what looks like a fall in positive tests. This still looks bizarre.

Graph 2 – The number of new tests seems to be rising. If we are looking to reduce restrictions based on positive tests, this is not good news. The percentage positive is fluctuating day to day, after its meteoric and uncanny rise, but on average seems to be flattening. The number of newly tested individuals seems to continue to be flat. (I have re-calculated the 7 day averages to make them retrospective, after a suggestion from a member of the public, so the graph looks a little different.)

Graph 3 – NHS tests and community tests are rising and are about to reach the level of the pre-Christmas peak, when you look at the totals of the previous seven days.

Graph 4 – I find this really strange, showing how the NHS tests and the community tests are rising and falling in sync and almost in parallel with one another recently. The two really shouldn’t have much to do with one another, you would think, so I find this peculiar.

Graph 5 – The positive tests curve has shifted forward slightly because I’ve recalculated averages, and we continue to see, obviously, this simultaneous rise in ITU and hospital occupancy and deaths. Deaths are trickier to follow because they fluctuate so much within the week. But it all looks quite strange and I postulate again it is indicative that many positives are coming from existing hospital patients, or patients are arriving at hospital, whether sick with covid or not, and testing positive.

Graph 6 – Looking to the regions, we are seeing once again simultaneous peaking or at least flattening in all regions. Again, this is not indicative of a true epidemic. (These averages have all been re-calculated as well.)

Graph 7 – Take this graph with a pinch of salt… especially the last data entries by date – they will change and probably shift upwards. But we see here at least a flattening, I am absolutely certain. (Averages re-calculated)

Graphs 8&9 – This pair of graphs is really telling. Something has changed! We have a rise in positive tests but a higher case fatality rate and a decreased lag, by more than two weeks, it seems, if that local peak in deaths is to be believed. Again, it seems as though we may be testing people in hospitals as they move between departments and they are catching positives along the way. This is the only explanation for this phenomenon, as far as I can make out. If you have another suggestion, please tell us!

 

Tweet and share the graphs!

Lots of love. ❤

Stay sane 🧠  Stay strong 💪

Christine x

 

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