Hello Friends! 🕵️♂️📰📉
Sorry this is a little late today – been a busy day with Corona Stories interviews and also a very long family game of Risk this evening!!! 😊
Today’s Data 10th January 2021:
1877 new +ve tests (⇧1% on yesterday)
20968 new tests reporting (⇩20%)
This is 9.0% positive percentage rate (⇧1.9% on yesterday)
In total including repeat tests 2099 were +ve – this is a 10% rate.
7233 newly tested individuals reported (⇩2%).
Greater Glasgow and Clyde 531, Lothian 188, Lanarkshire 278, Tayside 165, Grampian 187, Ayrshire and Arran 140, Fife 119, Forth Valley 74, Three island boards 3.
3 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩90)
123 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇧14)
1598 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇧0.1%)
Graph 1 – Positive tests have reached a new steady-ish state – and are even falling by the looks of things. It’s still really strange it stepped up almost instantly at Christmas and then immediately settled down. A change in testing strategy is the most likely explanation.
Graph 2 – As always seems to happen, the high number of tests is bringing the positive percentage down as shown in the red line. The number of new tests is rising again, and new tests look to be flattening – but this measure has not been at all stable recently. The blue line shows the rise in positive cases in the context of the green and yellow lines. Still a really small ratio of the total tests performed.
Graph 3 – the number of NHS tests reporting is still generally increasing.
Graph 4 – the number of tests overall is climbing gradually, but what is interesting is how positive tests have taken this huge step up and then immediately settling at this new equilibrium state. This is not typical of an epidemic – at all – as I understand it.
Graph 5 – The interesting thing about this graph is the inflection point on Christmas Day for positive tests, deaths, ITU and hospital occupancy. You would expect one effect to lead to another, unless there were many positives being generated in existing hospital patients. Deaths are rising with a steeper gradient than any other measure. This is very strange and should raise some eyebrows.
Graph 6 – Looking to the regions, we are seeing once again simultaneous peaking or at least flattening in all regions. Again, this is not indicative of a true epidemic.
Graph 7 – This is bizarre also. It is liable to change as the latest results get updated by PHS, but clearly we are seeing a flattening here. Everything moving in unison – it’s just weird.
Graphs 8&9 – This pair of graphs is really telling. Something has changed! We have a rise in positive tests but a higher case fatality rate and a decreased lag. It suggests we are oversampling those arriving in hospital, those likely to be admitted to ITU, and those who are gravely ill (and therefore more likely to die) and that this is where a larger portion of positives are coming from recently compared to before. I don’t believe that covid is killing proportionally more people than it used to, because that is not what clinicians are telling us at all.
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪