Daily data for 14th Dec 2020

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734 new +ve tests (⇩8%)
10914 new tests reporting (⇩37%)

This is 6.7% positive percentage rate – this is a 2.1% increase, which is quite a lot.

In total including repeat tests 833 were +ve – a 7.6% rate – this is 2.4% more than yesterday.

4403 newly tested individuals reported (⇩19%)

Local data:

  • Greater Glasgow and Clyde 213,
  • Lothian 135,
  • Lanarkshire 95,
  • Tayside 49,
  • Grampian 63,
  • Ayrshire and Arran 81,
  • Fife 42,
  • Forth Valley 29,
  • Three island boards 2

0 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩2)
46 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩1)

1012 come through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩0.3%)

Comment:

Graph 1 – Is the recent increasing trend in positives turning back DOWN?


Graph 2 – Percentage positives are increasing a little but we often see that at the start of the week – 63% of the peak today


Graph 3 – there is good correlation, apparently, between number of tests and number of positive tests returned and how they change.


Graph 4 – I’m interested in how this rise in positive tests recently has coincided with a rise in hospital occupant numbers… I think that possibly these ‘cases’ are tending to happen in existing hospital patients – I actually have more evidence of this I think which I will share later. ITU occupancy continues to fall, which seems a little strange because it has been a week since hospital numbers started to climb but there was a lag of five days between the peak for these two measures back in Oct/Nov. As at 9th December, there were 1037 patients delayed in hospital and some of them will certainly contribute to the 1012 occupying hospital beds. Deaths are still surprisingly high; they actually exceed in the last 7 days by 1 the previous 7 days. My feeling is they should be falling since positive tests started to fall such a long time ago. It feels much less brave now for me to say categorically we absolutely must have been over-testing the dying for at least a time. Again, I have more evidence for this coming!

You’ll be hearing from me again soon! Lucky you!

Tweet and share the graphs!

Lots of love this Monday. ❤
Stay sane – Stay strong 💪

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